摘要：Long-term runoff forecasting important reference significance for the long-term planning of cascade hydropower stations. The traditional forecast accuracy evaluation is based on the deviation between the predicted runoff and the measured hydrological sequence, but fails to consider the effect on long-term scheduling. In this paper, a runoff forecasting evaluation method for long-term scheduling is presented. First, a monthly distribution method based on the forecast value of annual runoff is proposed to describe the uncertainty of the forecast. Then, a power generation plan model with the maximum generation objective and an actual generation benefit evaluation model are established to study the effect of runoff forecasting in scheduling. At last two indexes of “Incremental generation” and “Incremental benefit” based on the comparison of actual benefit with and without a forecast plan are given to evaluate the performance of forecasting. The case study shows that the proposed evaluation method can reflect the actual benefit brought by the forecast information, which provide more practical guidance for the hydropower station.
