摘要：The process of rainfall and runoff in the watershed is nonlinear which strongly depends on precipitation, evaporation, infiltration and hydrodynamic characteristics of soil. Due to the random and complex nature of the natural state of runoff, the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and runoff in the watershed is extremely complicated. In view of the ability of system dynamics to describe multivariate, high order, multi-loop, strong nonlinear and complex feedback relationships, and to analyze the feedback between variables, the water cycle dynamics model is established by using system dynamics method. According to the dynamic characteristics of hydrological process, the dynamic process of rainfall to runoff is analyzed, and the relationships between the variables in the model are characterized by specific differential equations. The case study in the Zhexi watershed shows that this model can accurately simulate the process of water cycle in the watershed which also performs well on hydrological forecasting. It has certain practical significance for expanding new idea on hydrological forecasting modeling.
