期刊名称：Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
电子版ISSN：1600-0870
出版年度：2012
卷号：64
页码：1-20
DOI：10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.18901
语种：English
摘要：We compare the GLAMEPS system, a pan-European limited area ensemble prediction system, with ECMWF's EPS over Belgium for an extended period from March 2010 until the end of December 2010. In agreement with a previous study, we find GLAMEPS scores considerably better than ECMWF's EPS. To compute the economic value, we introduce a new relative economic value score for continuous forecasts. The added value of combining the GLAMEPS system with the LAEF system over Belgium is studied. We conclude that adding LAEF to GLAMEPS increases the value, although the increase is small compared to the improvement of GLAMEPS to ECMWF's EPS. As an added benefit we find that the combined GLAMEPS-LAEF multi-EPS system is more robust, that is, it is less vulnerable to the (accidental) removal of one of its components.
关键词：LAM; EPS; verification; probabilistic forecasting; economic value
