摘要：Climate change impacts on extreme water levels (WLs) attwo United States Pacific Northwest estuaries are investigated using amulticomponent process-based modeling framework. The integrated impact ofclimate change on estuarine forcing is considered using a series ofsub-models that track changes to oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrologiccontrols on hydrodynamics. This modeling framework is run at decadal scalesfor historic (1979–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods with changes toextreme WLs quantified across the two study sites. It is found that there isspatial variability in extreme WLs at both study sites with all recurrenceinterval events increasing with further distance into the estuary. Thisspatial variability is found to increase for the 100-year event moving intothe future. It is found that the full effect of sea level rise is mitigatedby a decrease in forcing. Short-recurrence-interval events are less bufferedand therefore more impacted by sea level rise than higher-return-intervalevents. Finally, results show that annual extremes at the study sites aredefined by compound events with a variety of forcing contributing to highWLs.
