摘要：Despite uncertainty in forecasting wind speed and variance over time, wind power generation is the fastestgrowing form of renewable energy, and thus such forecasts are important considerations for the renewable energysector. Globally, wind energy generation has been growing at a rapid rate over the past few years, with ~370GW of installed capacity, and growth rates in excess of 15% per annum. 1 It is thus pertinent to evaluate recentSouth African surface wind trends in the context of wind energy generation. To this end, information relating torecent near-surface wind trends can be applied in various fields of interest, such as pollen dispersal alerts, winderosion in agricultural settings, building engineering, and the design of wind farms. South Africa is a developingcountry with limited capacity to generate sufficient energy, thus the importance of establishing renewable energysectors (solar and wind in particular). Given the global uptake of alternative energy generation, such as wind powergeneration, the South African government initiated the procurement of wind power in 2011 from independent powerproducers, aimed at diversifying and expanding South Africa’s electricity generation. 2,3 South Africa recorded itsfirst wind-generated electricity from independent power producers incorporated into the national grid at the end of2013. This generation had reached 1212 MW by the end of 2015, which equates to 2.66% of the national installedpower capacity. 4 The projected outlook would see up to 4360 MW (approximately 5% of national power capacity)of wind generation installed by 2030. 5 This substantial uptake in energy generation from wind requires someunderstanding of wind variability and trends in the South African context, so as to quantify the potential impact ofwind variability and/or change over a 20-year power purchase agreement term.
