摘要：The study was conducted to estimate flock dynamics of western lowland Arab goat and to assess their contribution to income of smallholder farmers in Kurmuk and Assosa districts, western Ethiopia. Flocks of 30 households were monitored for a period of 12 months in 2016. Data were analyzed using the general linear model procedure of SAS and two-way interaction effects were fitted in the model and retained when found significant in the preliminary analysis. The study result indicates that total entrances for all flock were significantly (p < 0.05) higher in dry and hot-cool seasons than wet season. Most of the entrance was kids born in hot-cool season (January) (4.0 ± 0.42) and hot-dry season (May) (5.4 ± 1.09) for Assosa and Kumruk study sites, respectively. Kid mortality constituted the greater part of outflow. High kid mortality was occurred during July, February, January, and September. Most of the sell of castrated goats were occurred in September and April for both small and large flocks targeting holidays celebrated during this months. Male goat owners had significantly lower goat production potential (GPP) value than female (0.47 ± 0.02 vs. 0.52 ± 0.02). The GPP was lower in small flock than in large flock (0.48 ± 0.02 vs. 0.51 ± 0.02). Higher GPP was recorded in the months of January, February, and March for both large and small flocks. The off-take was higher (P < 0.05) in Assosa (0.06 ± 0.01) than Kumruk (0.02 ± 0.02) district. The average goat production efficiency (GPE) was higher (P < 0.05) in Assosa large (193.23 ± 20.0) and small flocks (93.44 ± 17.3) than Kumruk large (84.71 ± 15.6) and small flocks (33.33 ± 26.3).The production efficiency recorded was not comparable to the potential that the farmers had to sell goats or consume goats’ meat and milk. The lower goat production potential observed for small flocks implies that high mortality rates severely restrict receiving higher benefits from goat. Therefore, in order to optimize the productivity of goats flock dynamics, developing health intervention strategies that target reduction of kids’ mortality is imperative.
