摘要：In this paper, vector autoregressive model (VAR) is used to represent the most important variables in the Iraqi economy which are, Foreign Investment (FI), Iraqi Investment (II), Imports (IM), Exports (EX), Expenses (EXP), Income (IN), Broad Money (M2), Oil price (OI), Gross Domestic Product In Constant Price (2007=100) (GDP), Gross Foreign Assets of CBI (GF) and Exchange Rate in market price (ER). VAR model is estimated and some related tests are conducted. As a result, small model for economy of Iraq is obtained. To complete the work, principal component analysis is used for policy-making and prioritization for economy of Iraq. Most of information, approximately 86.13, is contained in three factors only. Based on the obtained results, all plans, policies and programs of economic and development in Iraq must be made according to the effects of factors and consequently variables under consideration.
关键词：Vector autoregressive model (VAR); Principal component analysis; Stability; Wald Test; Semi-simulated data; Akaike information criterion (AIC); Schwarz information criterion (SC)
