标题：Estimation of Water Carrying Capacity for Settlement Activities in Small Islands:A Case Study of Small Islands of North Tiworo District, Muna Sub District, Indonesia
摘要：This research aimed to estimate a coastal water quality change and its carrying capacity regarding the population settlement. Estimating the carrying capacity was taken using a quality standard comparison method, where the water quality was generated from field measurement with the quality of water according to the Ministerial Decree of Environment No. 51 of 2004. The principal component analysis was carried out to seek a parameter grouping of water quality in each location, while probability linear regression test was conducted to estimate the water carrying capacity. The results of this research indicated that the total population of Tiworo Archipelago has a significant correlation with ammonia concentration in the waters. The Quality Standard Ratio (QSR) value of ammonia currently was about 0.18, that is under its carrying capacity standard of 1. The number of the population according to the ammonia carrying capacity was about 39,541 people that was predicted happening on 160 years ahead, where the QSR ammonia value will reach 1, with an assumption of population growth rate of 1.36% per year. If the scenario was taken by decreasing the population growth rate as high as 1% per year, the carrying capacity of ammonia will happen 218 years later, and reversely when the population growth rate increased to be 1.5% per year, the carrying capacity of ammonia was going to occur on 146 years ahead. However, if this scenario was conducted by managing the local domestic waste, the ammonia carrying capacity limit was going to happen on 228 years ahead. Although various scenarios are able to be carried out to maintain the water quality, the water carrying capacity currently in the research location is either still high enough to support settlement activity of populations or marine aquaculture activity.
