期刊名称：Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
印刷版ISSN：2080-0886
电子版ISSN：2080-119X
出版年度：2010
期号：2
页码：253-277
语种：English
出版社：Polska Akademia Nauk
摘要：The s-period ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of dimension n is considered and its Bayesian analysis is discussed. The VaR assessment can be based either on the n-variate predictive distribution of future returns on individual assets, or on the univariate Bayesian model for the portfolio value (or the return on portfolio). In both cases Bayesian VaR takes into account parameter uncertainty and non-linear relationship between ordinary and logarithmic returns. In the case of a large portfolio, the applicability of the n-variate approach to Bayesian VaR depends on the form of the statistical model for asset prices. We use the n-variate type I MSF-SBEKK(1,1) volatility model proposed specially to cope with large n. We compare empirical results obtained using this multivariate approach and the much simpler univariate approach based on modelling volatility of the value of a given portfolio.
