摘要：The Energy and Chemical Industry Base (ECIB) in the Loess Plateau is the key area for soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. The implementation of the project of returning farmland to forests (grass) has a significant impact on the structure and pattern of land use in this region. Based on the interpretation of the TM images of the ECIB in 1997, 2004 and 2011, the GIS spatial analysis and mathematical statistics analysis methods were used to analyze temporal and spatial variation characteristics of land use. In order to better respond to the impact of land use change, the gray system dynamic model (GM) was used to predict the dynamic change of land use in the study area. The results showed that the area of woodland, grassland and building land increased significantly, but the water body, cultivated land and unutilized land area all showed a significant decrease trend. From 1997 to 2011, the R index of the ECIB was less than 0, indicating that the rate of land use change was small and in an adjustment period. Using this predictive model, the proportion of woodland, water body and building land in the study area would continue to increase, and the rate would be slowed down compared with the previous period. Then the area of grassland, unutilized land and cultivated land would be further reduced by 2020, and the policy factors had a greater impact on land use types and patterns.
关键词：Land use pattern;energy and Chemical Industry Base;gray system dynamic model (GM)
