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  • 标题:Bayesian Model Selection Based on Proper Scoring Rules
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:A. Philip Dawid ; Monica Musio
  • 期刊名称:Bayesian Analysis
  • 印刷版ISSN:1931-6690
  • 电子版ISSN:1936-0975
  • 出版年度:2015
  • 卷号:10
  • 期号:2
  • 页码:479-499
  • DOI:10.1214/15-BA942
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:International Society for Bayesian Analysis
  • 摘要:Bayesian model selection with improper priors is not well-defined because of the dependence of the marginal likelihood on the arbitrary scaling constants of the within-model prior densities. We show how this problem can be evaded by replacing marginal log-likelihood by a homogeneous proper scoring rule, which is insensitive to the scaling constants. Suitably applied, this will typically enable consistent selection of the true model.
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