摘要：SummaryIn many regions of the world pollinator populations are rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to disrupt major ecosystem functions and services. These changes in pollinator abundance may be prone to critical transitions with abrupt shifts to a state strongly depleted both in pollinator and vegetation abundance. Here we develop a process-based model to investigate the effect of a positive pollinator-vegetation feedback, whereby an initial decline in plant density increases selfing thereby reducing floral resources and negatively affecting pollinators. We show that a decline in resource availability and an increase in disturbance intensity can induce an abrupt shift in vegetation and pollinator dynamics and potentially lead to the collapse of plant-pollinator systems. Thus, endogenous feedbacks can induce strong non-linearities in plant-pollinator dynamics, making them vulnerable to critical transitions to a state depleted of both plants and pollinators in response to resource deficiency and natural or anthropogenic disturbance.Graphical AbstractDisplay OmittedHighlights•Increased selfing in plants reduces nectar quality and pollinator visitation•Bistability can emerge from endogenous positive pollinator-vegetation feedbacks•Plant-pollinator dynamics may exhibit critical transitions under global changeEnvironmental Science; Ecology; Mathematical Biosciences
