标题：A NOVEL CONCURRENT RISK IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS METHOD FOR EQUIPMENT FAILURE BY COMBINING PETRI NET REASONING AND AN EXTENDED FMEA USING FOR SAFE OIL AND GAS STORAGE AND TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENT
摘要：Expert experience and knowledge can provide unstructured and non-detectable fault data for equipment safety management. Therefore, knowledge- based risk analysis is integral compared with signal- based and quantitative data-driven equipment risk analysis methods. Petri net is an intuitive and dynamic knowledge representation and risk reasoning tool. The concurrent risks are particularly focused during reasoning process by proposing a backward- forward reasoning strategy. First, equipment components failure is described as production rules based on expert knowledge. Then Petri net is presented to depict complex cause-effect relationships among components graphically. Furthermore, concurrent risk reachability tree modeling method is presented to trace risk propagation paths. To identify potential concurrent risks, concurrent forward reachability set is first defined for risk reachability tree. In this paper, the method was applied to a reciprocating compressor failure risk identification case. Through concurrent risk analysis, an extended Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) for the reciprocating compressor can be conducted. The results show that the proposed method can reveal not only evident risks but also potential risks. Therefore, it can provide the basis for the equipment preventive maintenance and risk management and maintaining safe oil and gas storage and transportation environment.
关键词：Oil and gas storage and transportation environment;risk identification;risk analysis;concurrent risk;Petri net reasoning;extended FMEA
