摘要：Purpose is development of tools for assessing the emergency hazard of facility for disposal of explosive conversion products and materials. Results have been obtained by means of the economic and mathematical modelling methods, with use of the fundamental provisions of probability theory. The main task of conversion products and materials disposal is the creation and organization of safe technological processes aimed at returning the material resources contained in the conversion products to the state’s economy after the appropriate processing, rather than at destroying these resources. As a methodological basis for assessing the emergency hazard of a facility, a provision has been accepted that an integral measure of the disposal process hazard is the economic assessment of accidents. A scheme has been constructed of successiveness of the disposal facility events and states that can lead to an accident, on the basis of which a probabilistic model of its occurrence is developed. Proposed probabilistic model of an accident initiation at the facility for disposal of explosive conversion products and materials makes it possible to predict the behaviour of facility, based on results of the equipment and service personnel state survey, as well as on the analysis of the environmental conditions.
