摘要：The Amazon basin is the world's largest rainforest and the most biologicallydiverse place on Earth. Despite the critical importance of this region,Amazon forests continue inexorably to be degraded and deforested for variousreasons, mainly a consequence of agricultural expansion. The development ofnovel policy strategies that provide balanced solutions, associatingeconomic growth with environmental protection, is still challenging, largelybecause the perspective of those most affected – local stakeholders – is oftenignored. Participatory fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) was implemented toexamine stakeholder perceptions towards the sustainable development of twoagricultural-forest frontier areas in the Bolivian and Brazilian Amazon. Aseries of development scenarios were explored and applied to stakeholder-derived FCM, with climate change also analysed. Stakeholders in both regionsperceived landscapes of socio-economic impoverishment and environmentaldegradation driven by governmental and institutional deficiencies. Undersuch abject conditions, governance and well-integrated social andtechnological strategies offered socio-economic development, environmentalconservation, and resilience to climatic changes. The results suggest there arebenefits of a new type of thinking for development strategies in the Amazonbasin and that continued application of traditional development policiesreduces the resilience of the Amazon to climate change, whilst limitingsocio-economic development and environmental conservation.
