期刊名称：International Journal of Statistics and Applications
印刷版ISSN：2168-5193
电子版ISSN：2168-5215
出版年度：2020
卷号：10
期号：1
页码：10-16
DOI：10.5923/j.statistics.20201001.02
语种：English
出版社：Scientific & Academic Publishing Co.
摘要：The effect of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) global epidemic continue to emerge decades after the first wave of infection. Since the start of the epidemic, many measures have been taken by the government and non-governmental organizations to control the outbreak. In Yobe State, the programs implemented include enlightenment, HIV/AIDS testing, and counseling, free drugs, and therapy. The State is mainly an agricultural state created out of the old Borno State on 27 August 1991. With an estimated population of about 2.5 Million, Yobe state covers a total of 54, 428sq km land area, the state borders the Nigerian states of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, and Jigawa. It borders the Diffa Region and Zinder Region to the north in the Republic of Niger. Because the state lies mainly in the dry savanna belt, the State is dry and hot for most of the year except in the southern part of the state, which has a milder climate. This study has looked at the trend of the epidemic in the state. Statistical time series trends were used in analyzing the data. Three methods of fitting trend of a time series data namely, linear trend, quadratic trend and exponential trend were employed to fit the data of HIV patients on ART. The linear trend model has MAPE, MAD and MSD values of 24.8, 147.5 and 31767.8 respectively. The quadratic model provides respective accuracy measures as MAPE=21.6, MAD=138.8 and MSD=26780.5. An exponential model gives MAPE=22.4, MAD=144.7 and MSD=29265.7. The result indicated that the quadratic model with the smallest accuracy measures have been the best and most suitable mathematical model to fit the dataset.
