Abstract

The analysis of the time distribution of the major earthquakes that occurred in Italy since 1600 reveals that seismicity alternates periods of higher and lower activities over cycles of about 60 years. The same rhythm is present in the eruptive history of the Vesuvius. The large spatial scale of synchronization leads to suppose an external forcing. A hint on its possible origin comes from climatology, where a quasi 60 year cycle is found for various parameters and processes. A hypothesis, also supported by other studies, is that seismicity and volcanism are controlled by cycles of sea level rise. The mechanism could justify similar regularities observed for seismicity in other areas (e.g., cycles of earthquakes in the southern San Andreas Fault, in California) or for strong earthquakes at the global level. The increasing oceanic load of the last century could be coresponsible of the current long‐lasting rest of the Vesuvius.

Key Points

Seismic and volcanic activities are tightly connected Seismo/volcanic activity in Italy oscillates on a quasi 60 year cycle The findings have implications for geological hazard in Italy