摘要：Landslides threaten the safety of vehicles on highways. Whenanalyzing the risk of a landslide hitting moving vehicles, the spacingbetween vehicles and the types of vehicles on the highway can be highlyuncertain and have often been omitted in previous studies. Using a highway slope in Hong Kong as a case study, this paper presents a methodfor assessing the risk of moving vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide; this method also allows for the possible number of different types of vehicles hit by thelandslide to be investigated. In this case study, the annual failureprobability of the slope is analyzed based on historical slope failure datafrom Hong Kong. The spatial impact of the landslide is evaluated based on anempirical run-out prediction model. The consequences of the landslide are assessed usingprobabilistic modeling of the traffic, which can consider uncertainties in thevehicle spacing, vehicle types and slope failure time. Using the suggestedmethod, the expected annual number of vehicles and people hit by thelandslide can be conveniently calculated. This method can also be used to derive thecumulative frequency–number of fatalities curve for societal riskassessment. Using the suggested method, the effect of factors like the annualfailure probability of the slope and the density of vehicles on the risk level ofthe slope can be conveniently assessed. The method described in this papercan provide a new guideline for highway slope design in terms of managingthe risk of landslides hitting moving vehicles.
