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  • 标题:A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Arianna Agosto ; Paolo Giudici
  • 期刊名称:Risks
  • 印刷版ISSN:2227-9091
  • 出版年度:2020
  • 卷号:8
  • 期号:77
  • 页码:77
  • DOI:10.3390/risks8030077
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:MDPI, Open Access Journal
  • 摘要:We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, which can heavily impact health, economics and finance. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are exemplified from some observed series.
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