摘要：We investigate the potential use of seasonal streamflow forecasts for the real-time operation of Angat reservoir (Philippines). The system is characterized by a strongintra- and inter-annual variability in the imflow process，which is further amplified by the ElNinio Southern Oscillation(ENSO). We bank on the relationship between ENSO indices andlocal hydro-climatological processes to issue probabilistic streamflow forecasts(with a 3-monthforecast horizon) and then integrate them within a Multistage Stochastic Programming (MSP)approach. The rolling-horizon, forecast-informed scheme is adopted for the period 1968-2014 andbenchmarked against deterministic optimization solutions with perfect forecasts,climatology,and mean forecasts. We also compare its performance with the current operating rules， andthe operating rules obtained by solving a Stochastic Dynamic Programming problem. Resultsshow that the MSP approach can help reduce the severity of failures during prolonged droughtscaused by ENSO.
