摘要：With a rapidly increasing of vehicle productionand powerful purchasing capability of Chinese consumers, theautomobile ownership will keep a raising tendency in Chinesemarket. End-of-life vehicle (ELV) recycling contributes tosustainability achievement of the automobile supply chain, aswell as the improvement of resource utilization. To providemore evidence on strategic plan of ELV recycling industry andrenewable sector with precise ELV amounts, a modified GM (1,1) model is improved to make the predication in terms of ELVrecycling. Specifically, the residual error and time responsefunction are developed to improve the accuracy of forecastingmodel. Taking ELV recycling amounts from 2015 to 2018 asexperimental samples, numerical results show that the ELVrecycling amount in 2019 is about 2.2 million. In addition, themodified GM (1, 1) model demonstrates a better performanceand superior availability comparing with the traditional GM (1,1) model and regression forecasting models.
