期刊名称：International Research Journal of Environmental Sciences
电子版ISSN：2319-1414
出版年度：2013
卷号：2
期号：5
页码：53-61
语种：English
出版社：International Science Community Association
摘要：Enhanced anthropogenic activities over the last few decades have led to significant changes in climate world over. This paper mainly focuses on the assessment of changes occurring in the temporal distribution of rainfall with 30-years database of monthly precipitation for identifying the Monthly, Seasonal and Annual distributions, variations and trends in ten districts of AP. Regression analysis is done to examine the effect of weather parameters on change in climatic conditions. The slope values obtained from regression was calculated for the ten districts, showed the highest negative value for Karimnagar (-1.2) and highest positive value for the Guntur districts (1.3). Precipitation Concentration Index was analyzed at annual and seasonal scale to identify the pattern of rainfall in the study area for the period of 1981-2010 which showed an irregular distribution of rainfall with values in the range of 16 to 35. Prediction of rainfall for the year 2011 to 2015 is done by using the Climate Predictability Tool for the Karimnagar and Prakasam districts. The results indicated that the values of prediction of rainfall for Karimnagar showed that for the years 2006, 07, 08 and 11 the prediction was fairly consistent showing an error within the range of ±5%. Prakasam showed highly erratic values between the forecasted and predicted and actual data. This is attributed to the diverse agro-climatic regions in Prakasam when compared to Karimnagar which falls into a single agro-climatic zone.
关键词：Regression analysis;climate predictability tool;precipitation concentration index
