摘要：Universities are committed to offering quality education; however, a high rate of academic failure is often observed in the first year of studies. Considering the impact that motivation and emotional aspects can have on students’ commitment to study and therefore on their academic performance, achievement, and well-being, this study aims to identify the factors associated with academic success or failure in 1071 students entering the National Polytechnic School (Quito, Ecuador). The data were compiled from the existing computer records of the university with the permission of the responsible administrative staff. A predictive model has been used and a binary logistic regression analysis was carried out through the step-forward regression procedure based on the Wald statistic to analyze the predictive capacity of the variables related to emotional intelligence, motivational and self- regulated socio-cognitive skills, goal orientation, and prior academic achievement (measured by university entrance marks and through a knowledge test carried out at the beginning of the university academic year). To determine the cut-off point for the best discriminatory power of each of the variables, a Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis has been used. The results indicate that the variables that are significant in the prediction of academic success or failure are the two academic performance measures: the emotional attention variable, and the performance-approach goals and the motivational self-efficacy variable. Additionally, the highest predictive power is displayed by the prior academic performance measure obtained through the knowledge test conducted at the beginning of the university course.
