摘要：Oil spill accidents during port operations are one of the main hydrocarbon pollution threats for coastal waters. Appropriate environmental risk assessment and pollution events management tools are needed to achieve sustainability and environmental protection in port activity. Recent developments in monitoring techniques and accurate meteo-oceanographic prediction systems have been implemented in many ports, providing tools for environmental management. A novel method based on meteo-oceanographic operational services, in conjunction with Monte Carlo experiments using an oil spill model, is implemented to perform probabilistic maps of potential pollution events. Tarragona port area was chosen as the study case for three reasons: it accommodates a hub of petrochemical industry, the availability of high-resolution wind and water current data, and previous studies at the area offer the possibility to check the results’ accuracy. The interpretation of the impact probability maps reveals a specific pattern explained by the mean hydrodynamic conditions and the energetic north-westerly wind conditions. The impact probability maps may enhance efficiency in the environmental management of port waters and nearby coastal areas, reducing the negative impact of pollutant discharges.
