摘要：Wood fuel has become central in environmental policy and decision-making processes in cross-sectoral areas. Proper consideration of different types of woody biomass is fundamental in forming energy transition and decarbonization strategies. We quantified the development of theoretical (TPs) and sustainable (SPs) potentials of wood fuel from forests, trees outside forests, wood residues and waste wood in Switzerland for 2020, 2035 and 2050. Ecological and economic restrictions, timber market situations and drivers of future developments (area size, tree growth, wood characteristics, population growth, exporting/importing (waste wood)) were considered. We estimated a SP of wood fuel between 26.5 and 77.8 PJ/a during the three time points. Results demonstrate that the SP of wood fuel could be significantly increased already in the short term. This, as a moderate stock reduction (MSR) strategy in forests, can lead to large surpluses in SPs compared to the wood fuel already used today (~36 PJ/a), with values higher by 51% (+18.2 PJ) in 2020 and by 59% (+21.3 PJ) in 2035. To implement these surpluses (e.g., with a cascade approach), a more circular economy with sufficient processing capacities of the subsequent timber industries and the energy plants to convert the resources is required.
