期刊名称：Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal
印刷版ISSN：1334-4676
出版年度：2020
卷号：18
期号：4
页码：471-489
DOI：10.7906/indecs.18.4.6
语种：English
出版社：Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu
摘要：In recent years machine learning algorithms have become a very popular tool for analysing financial data and forecasting stock prices. The goal of this article is to forecast five major stock market indexes (DAX, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Nikkei 225 and SP 500) using machine learning algorithms (Linear regression, Gaussian Processes, SMOreg and neural network Multilayer Perceptron) on historical data covering the period February 1, 2010, to January 31, 2020. The forecasts were made by using historical data in different base period lengths and forecasting horizons. The precision of machine learning algorithms was evaluated with the help of error metrics. The results of the analysis have shown that machine learning algorithms achieved highly accurate forecasting performance. The overall precision of all algorithms was better for shorter base period lengths and forecast horizons. The results obtained from this analysis could help investors in determining their optimal investment strategy. Stock price prediction remains, however, one of the most complex issues in the field of finance.
