摘要：Rapid urbanization aggravates the degradation of wetland function. However, few studies have quantitatively analyzed and predicted the comprehensive impacts of different scenarios and types of human activities on wetland ecosystems from the perspective of land development. Combined with the Habitat Risk Assessment (HRA) model and the Cellular Automata (Ca)-Markov model, this study quantitatively measured the impact intensity and spatial distribution of different types of human activities on the wetland ecosystem in 2015, simulated and predicted the ecological pressure on the wetland in 2030, and identified the ecological risk hotspots of the Yangtze River waterfront along the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results showed that the ecological risk of wetlands in the study area was low in the urban core and high in the suburbs. Construction activities posed a greater risk to wetlands. The intensity of human activities in the ecological protection scenario will be significantly lower than that in the natural development scenario in 2030. The waterfront in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will face more ecological risks. The results of the study can provide theoretical and technical support for wetland conservation policy formulation and waterfront development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
