摘要：The 10th anniversary of the new monetary policy framework of the SNB is a good opportunity to look at the changing role of the Swiss franc as an interna- tional currency. The last decade was characterized by tidal change around the world, including catastrophic turmoil (Sept. 11th attacks), major transforma- tions of the international financial system (such as the creation of the euro) and an (until recently) continued decrease in macroeconomic volatility. All of these developments could plausibly have affected the classical role of the Swiss franc as a safe haven. Whether the franc is a safe haven clearly has major implications from the point of view of monetary policy making: in a small open economy such as Switzerland, variation in the nominal exchange rate is an important factor in determining domestic inflation (see Roth, 2008). To what extent monetary policy can impact the exchange rate if needed is therefore a crucial determinant of its effectiveness. A safe haven currency is likely to be buffeted mainly by global factors in times of worldwide turbulence which could limit the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper explores the relative role of global and country-spe- cific factors in the Swiss franc exchange rate. Specifically we seek to understand if the impact of global shocks on the bilateral Swiss franc exchange rate vis-à- vis major currencies has been varying over time – possibly leading to safe haven behavior – and what the factors driving this variation may be.
