摘要：There is a greater probability of more frequent and/or larger oil spills in the Arctic region due to increased maritime shipping and natural resource development. Accordingly, there is an increasing need for effective spilled-oil computer modeling to help emergency oil spill response decision makers, especially in waters where sea ice is present. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Response & Restoration (OR&R) provides scientific support to the U.S. Coast Guard Federal On-Scene Coordinator (FOSC) during oil spill response. OR&R’s modeling products must provide adequate spill trajectory predictions so that response efforts minimize economic, cultural, and ecologic impacts, including those to species, habitats, and food supplies. The Coastal Response Research Center is conducting a project entitled Oil Spill Modeling for Improved Response to Arctic Maritime Spills: The Path Forward, in conjunction with modelers, responders, and researchers. A goal of the project is to prioritize new investments in model and tool development to improve response effectiveness in the Arctic. The project delineated FOSC needs during Arctic maritime spill response and provided a solution communicating sources of uncertainty in model outputs using a Confidence Estimates of Oil Model Inputs and Outputs (CEOMIO) table. The table shows the level of confidence (high, medium, low) in a model’s trajectory prediction over scenario-specific time intervals and the contribution of different component inputs (e.g., temperature, wind, ice) to that result.
