摘要：With rapid economic development and urbanization in China, vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the major factors affecting air quality. The Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA), which has undergone a fast increase in vehicle population and has an advantageous geographical location, was selected as the study area. Vehicle emissions estimated based on the COPERT IV model in this area changed greatly between 1999 and 2015, during which time the emissions of NO<sub>x</sub>, CO<sub>2</sub>, and NH<sub>3</sub> increased markedly. Passenger cars and light-duty vehicles were the main contributors to pollutants CO and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emissions. Heavy-duty trucks and buses were the important contributors to pollutants NO<sub>x</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub>, and PM<sub>10</sub>. Passenger cars were the major contributors to CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O, NH<sub>3</sub>, and SO<sub>2</sub>. The city with the most emissions is Zhengzhou, followed by Luoyang, Shangqiu, and Zhoukou. The spatial distribution of vehicle emissions has formed around or tended to concentrate in urban centers. Then, this study also predicts the vehicle emissions from 2015 to 2025 and designs ten policy scenarios for the prevention and control of emissions to evaluate the emission reduction effect. The radical integrated scenario was most effective for controlling CO, NMVOC, NO<sub>x</sub>, PM<sub>2.5</sub>, PM<sub>10</sub>, CO<sub>2</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O, and NH<sub>3 </sub>emissions than any one scenario by itself.
