摘要：This paper uses a multi-period PSM-DID model to explore the impact of land transfers on food production from a spatial perspective and analyses the income effects, scale effects, and structural effects of such transfers. The empirical results are as follows. (1) Land transfers have reduced the proportion of food crops planted by farmers, and the planting structure has shifted towards cash crops, which has obvious structural effects. (2) The impact of land transfers on the planting structure is spatially heterogeneous. Land transfers are more common in the south than in the north. Land transfers have reduced wheat planting in the north, while rice planting has been reduced in the south. (3) Land transfers have increased the operating income of farmers and have an income effect, but the income of farmers in the north is higher than that of farmers in the south. (4) Land transfers do not have scale effects. Current land transfers among farmers are mainly conducted on a small scale and do not improve farmers’ efficiency in planting food. The following suggestions are proposed. (1) A market mechanism for land transfers should be established to promote large-scale land transfers. (2) The trend towards non-grain cultivation due to land transfers should be halted to ensure food security. (3) The different impacts of urbanization in the northern and southern regions should be considered, and the division of labour in grain-producing areas should be strengthened. (4) Land transfer models should be developed, and the development of smart agriculture should be explored.
