摘要：Seismic risk in this region is high in Sichuan-Yunnan region of western China, and active faults are well developed in this region. Tunneling in this region would inevitably come across with active faults, and the stability of the tunnel would face serious threats due to the dislocation of an active fault. The magnitude of the fault dislocation is an important design parameter in the design work of tunnels across an active fault. However, traditionally this parameter is estimated as a deterministic value that is often overestimated. In this paper, the probabilistic analysis method was introduced into the estimation of the dislocation magnitude for a tunnel in Sichuan-Yunnan region. To demonstrate the proposed approach, the Xianglushan tunnel in the Central-Yunnan-Water-Transmission Project, which crosses the Longpan–Qiaohou active fault, was taken as an example case. The seismicity parameters in Sichuan-Yunnan region and the dislocation probability caused by earthquakes are considered. The fault dislocation magnitude that may occur during the service life of the tunnel can be estimated as a probability function, and parameter analysis was conducted. Thus, anti-dislocation design work of the tunnel may be conducted based on this reasonable estimation.
