摘要：AbstractThe 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and included, as of early November, six hurricanes that made landfall in the United States during the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Such an event would necessitate a large‐scale evacuation, with implications for the trajectory of the pandemic. Here we model how a hypothetical hurricane evacuation from four counties in southeast Florida would affect COVID‐19 case levels. We find that hurricane evacuation increases the total number of COVID‐19 cases in both origin and destination locations; however, if transmission rates in destination counties can be kept from rising during evacuation, excess evacuation‐induced case numbers can be minimized by directing evacuees to counties experiencing lower COVID‐19 transmission rates. Ultimately, the number of excess COVID‐19 cases produced by the evacuation depends on the ability of destination counties to meet evacuee needs while minimizing virus exposure through public health directives. These results are relevant to disease transmission during evacuations stemming from additional climate‐related hazards such as wildfires and floods.Plain Language SummaryIn recent years hurricane evacuations in the United States have displaced millions of people from their homes. Amid the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic, such an evacuation—and the associated increase in human‐to‐human interactions—poses an additional risk of disease transmission. In this study, we use an epidemiological model to simulate a hypothetical hurricane evacuation from southeast Florida. We find that evacuation is likely to increase the total number of COVID‐19 cases. However, directing evacuees to locations experiencing lower COVID‐19 transmission rates and simultaneously minimizing human contact during evacuation could reduce the excess number of infections. Our results indicate that evacuation‐induced COVID‐19 infections can be minimized by optimizing evacuation plans based on real‐time information about disease incidence and transmission.Key PointsHurricane evacuation increases the total number of COVID‐19 cases in both the origin and destination counties of evacueesWe can minimize excess COVID‐19 cases by directing evacuees to counties with low COVID‐19 transmission ratesMinimizing evacuation‐related COVID‐19 cases will also require keeping virus transmission rates low in evacuees' destination counties
