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  • 标题:Facilitating sender-receiver agreement in communicated probabilities: Is it best to use words, numbers or both?
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:David R. Mandel ; Daniel Irwin
  • 期刊名称:Judgment and Decision Making
  • 印刷版ISSN:1930-2975
  • 出版年度:2021
  • 卷号:16
  • 期号:2
  • 页码:363-393
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Society for Judgment and Decision Making
  • 摘要:Organizations tasked with communicating expert judgments couched in uncertainty often use numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes to standardize the meaning of verbal probabilities. An experiment (N = 1,202) was conducted to ascertain whether agreement with such a scheme was better when probabilities were presented verbally, numerically or in a combined “verbal + numeric” format. Across three agreement measures, the numeric and combined formats outperformed the verbal format and also yielded better discrimination between low and high probabilities and were less susceptible to the fifty-fifty blip phenomenon. The combined format did not confer any advantage over the purely numeric format. The findings indicate that numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes are an ineffective means of communicating information about probabilities to others and they call into question recommendations for use of the combined format for delivering such schemes.
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