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  • 标题:Machine prediction of US imports from the PRC in the context of mutual sanctions
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Petr Šuleř ; Jan Mareček
  • 期刊名称:SHS Web of Conferences
  • 印刷版ISSN:2416-5182
  • 电子版ISSN:2261-2424
  • 出版年度:2020
  • 卷号:73
  • 页码:1-18
  • DOI:10.1051/shsconf/20207301027
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:EDP Sciences
  • 摘要:The aim of this paper is to mechanically predict the import of the United States of America (USA) from the People's Republic of China (PRC). The trade restrictions of the USA and the PRC caused by the USA feeling of imbalance of trade between the two states have significantly influenced not only the trade between the two players, but also the overall climate of international trade. The result of this paper is the finding that multilayer perceptron networks (MLP) appear to be an excellent tool for predicting USA imports from the PRC. MLP networks can capture both the trend of the entire time series and its seasonal fluctuations. It also emerged that time series delays need to be applied. Acceptable results are shown to delay series of the order of 5 and 10 months. The mutual sanctions of both countries did not have a significant impact on the outcome of the machine learning prediction.
  • 关键词:machine prediction;trade war;sanctions;international trade
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