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  • 标题:Fuzzy Approach to Short-Term Youth Unemployment Forecast
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Simona Hašková
  • 期刊名称:SHS Web of Conferences
  • 印刷版ISSN:2416-5182
  • 电子版ISSN:2261-2424
  • 出版年度:2020
  • 卷号:73
  • 页码:1-9
  • DOI:10.1051/shsconf/20207301007
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:EDP Sciences
  • 摘要:The practical output of the paper is the prediction of the percentage of the short-term youth unemployment in the following two consecutive years. For this purpose, the non-traditional fuzzy model of the relevant prediction task is formulated in its theoretical-methodological part, which is subsequently applied in the application part. By means of the exact tools of the fuzzy approach (fuzzy sets and inference rules for manipulation with them), the synergy, uncertainty and complexity of the values (terms) of vaguely defined linguistic variables of an economic-psychological nature represented by sets of selected macroeconomic indicators is reflected. Despite the fact that the results of the fuzzy prediction are not significantly different from the results of conventional statistical prediction, the demonstration of the approach of the case of knowledgeable expertise to the choice of the relevant fuzzy sets and the formulation of the set of inference rules can be considered as a secondary benefit.
  • 关键词:uncertainty;unemployment;fuzzy sets;fuzzy rules
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