摘要：The study uses the key parameters of the spread of the epidemic, dividing the population into several groups S - susceptible, E - exposed, I - infectious, R - recovered, D - dead. It is found that the model behaves differently depending on the R₀ indicator - the average number of people that one infected manages to infect. Measures to suppress the epidemic undertaken by Azerbaijan and their effectiveness have been considered.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to model the current dynamics of the disease for future forecasting. The model takes into account all the main parameters of the epidemic: the proportion of severe patients and the mortality rate depending on the age of the patients, the duration of the incubation period and the infectious phase of the disease; incomplete registration of infected people due to the high prevalence of asymptomatic disease and insufficient testing; possible measures to contain and suppress the epidemic and their impact on R₀.Methods: The article uses the linear regression method, which consists in finding estimates of unknown parameters and the formation of a functional relationship between the sickness rate and the factors determining it.Findings & Value added: The constructed model analyzes the growth of patients in the country after removing the restrictive measures taken in early May on the basis of real statistics.
