摘要：Modal shift has a lot of merits in environmental and transport safety aspects, but it does not seem that it spreads enough in cargo transportation in Japan. To get effective policies for promoting it, the transportation simulator which can estimate quantitative effect of transportation system change is useful. In this paper, we develop cargo flow simulator by using disaggregate nested logit model to analyze changes by effects of policies and economic situation. The simulator we develop is a detailed one in which whole country is divided into 207 livelihood spheres, 7x2 patterns of carriage modes are considered and whole inter-domestic cargo flows are treated for each class of articles. It has enough reproducibility, and with the simulator we estimate the effect of cargo lot size and modal shift potential besides lead time and transport cost on ton-kilo basis to get basic guiding principles for achieving further modal shift.
