摘要：In the development of shale gas,it is of great significance to accurately predict the change of shale gas well production with time for evaluating the reserves and development performance of shale gas wells.Because shale gas reservoir has micro nano scale flow characteristics and multi-scale seepage law,the decline of shale gas well production is different from that of conventional gas well.In order to improve the accuracy of shale gas well production prediction and overcome the shortcomings of a single prediction model,on the basis of Arps hyperbolic decline model,SEPD model,Duong model and ker-ogen decline model for predicting shale gas well production decline,a combined model for predicting shale gas reservoir production decline is established with the goal of minimizing the sum of squares of prediction errors,which achieves the optimal production prediction combination of shale gas wells.The example calculation shows that the optimal combination prediction model has higher accuracy than the single decline model,and can be used to predict the change of single well production with time.
