摘要：This study examines the issue of food security and the trend analysis of agricultural productivity in Kwara State, Nigeria. Agricultural data on maize, sorghum, rice, millet, yam and cassava were collected from Kwara State Agricultural Development Project (KWADP), Ilorin for a period of twenty-two years (1992-2013). Descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation were used in data analysis. A standardized Anomaly Index was used to analyze fluctuation in crop yields. The semi-average method was used in the trend analysis of crop yield. The result of the descriptive statistics shows that the production of sorghum was heterogeneous. The Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) revealed that the crop yields fluctuated around the long-term mean. Annual sorghum and rice yields vary positively from 1999 to 2002 while maize and yam vary negatively from 1995 to 2002 and 1997 to 2000 respectively. About 59.1% of the cassava yields fall below the long-term means. The result of the semi-average method shows that all the identified crops exhibit an upward trend. This implies that the production of these crops will keep on increasing and thereby ensuring food security in the country. The study, therefore, suggests that both the State government and private organizations should encourage modern agricultural techniques like the application of fertilizer and pesticides to sustain the increasing pattern of crop productivity in the State.
