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  • 标题:Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Gaetano Campi ; Maria Vittoria Mazziotti ; Antonio Valletta
  • 期刊名称:Scientific Reports
  • 电子版ISSN:2045-2322
  • 出版年度:2021
  • 卷号:11
  • DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-91950-5
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Springer Nature
  • 摘要:The control of Covid 19 epidemics by public health policy in Italy during the first and the second epidemic waves has been driven by using reproductive number R t(t) to identify the supercritical (percolative), the subcritical (arrested), separated by the critical regime. Here we show that to quantify the Covid-19 spreading rate with containment measures there is a need of a 3D expanded parameter space phase diagram built by the combination of R t(t) and doubling time T d(t). In this space we identify the Covid-19 dynamics in Italy and its administrative Regions. The supercritical regime is mathematically characterized by (i) the power law of T d vs. [R t(t) − 1
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