摘要：Protected Areas (PAs) are critical instruments in preserving biodiversity and, because of their high-quality environmental conditions, they have always been attractive for ecotourism, the natural-based element of holiday activities that minimizes the “antagonistic” impacts of tourism on the environment. However, many PAs lack a specific management plan or do not include the future effects of tourism activities on the local human population. In this study, we propose a methodology for the projection of ecotourism impacts in the short-,mid-, and long-term scenarios in PAs. Based on the scenarios proposed by the panel of experts through the cause‒effect method, local communities described the core problems in a PA and proposed the solutions to develop ecotourism. We used 44 legislative, natural, and expert opinion attributes to prioritize future sustained activities under environmental policies. Our results suggest a background and show the best performance and efficacy of ecotourism activities. In addition, these methods aim to solve challenges faced by the local communities, encouraging the generation of scientific knowledge and conservation and natural resources management associated with biodiversity.
