摘要：Glacier debris flow is one of the most critical categories of geological hazards in high-mountain regions. To reduce its potential negative effects, it needs to investigate the susceptibility of glacier debris flow. However, when evaluating the susceptibility of glacier debris flow, most research work considered the impact of existing glacier area, while ignoring the impact of changes in glacier ablation volume. In this paper, we considered the impact of the changes in the glacier ablation volume to investigate the susceptibility of glacier debris flow. We proposed to evaluate the susceptibility analysis in G217 gullies with frequent glacial debris flow on the Duku highway, Xinjiang Province. Specifically, by using the simple band ratio method with the manual correction to identify glacier outlines, we identified the ablation zone by comparing the glacier boundary in 2000 with that in 2015. We then calculated ablation volume by changes in glacier elevation and ablation area from 2000 to 2015. Finally, we used the volume of glacier melting in different watersheds as the main factor to evaluate the susceptibility based on the improved geomorphic information entropy (GIE) method. We found that, overall, the improved GIE method with a correction coefficient based on the glacier ablation volume is better than the previous method. Deglaciation can be adapted to analyze glacier debris flow susceptibility based on glaciology and geomorphology. Our presented work can be applied to other similar glacial debris flow events in high-mountain regions.
