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  • 标题:Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID-19 post-lockdown dynamics
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Maíra Aguiar ; Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck ; Javier Mar
  • 期刊名称:Scientific Reports
  • 电子版ISSN:2045-2322
  • 出版年度:2021
  • 卷号:11
  • DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-93366-7
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Springer Nature
  • 摘要:As the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, research on mathematical modeling became imperative and very influential to understand the epidemiological dynamics of disease spreading. The momentary reproduction ratio r( t) of an epidemic is used as a public health guiding tool to evaluate the course of the epidemic, with the evolution of r( t) being the reasoning behind tightening and relaxing control measures over time. Here we investigate critical fluctuations around the epidemiological threshold, resembling new waves, even when the community disease transmission rate \documentclass[12pt
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