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  • 标题:PERSAMAAN DIFERENSIAL ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK DALAM PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Amam Taufiq Hidayat ; Subanar Subanar
  • 期刊名称:MEDIA STATISTIKA
  • 印刷版ISSN:1979-3693
  • 电子版ISSN:2477-0647
  • 出版年度:2020
  • 卷号:13
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:60-67
  • DOI:10.14710/medstat.13.1.60-67
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:MEDIA STATISTIKA
  • 摘要:Geometric Brownian motion is one of the most widely used stock price model. One of the assumptions that is filled with stock return volatility is constant. Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process a model to describe volatility in finance. Additionally, Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by Background Driving Levy Process (BDLP) compound Poisson process and the marginal law of volatility follows a Gamma distribution. Barndorff-Nielsen and Shepard (BNS) Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model can to sample the process for the stock price with volatility follows Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Based on these, the simulation result are compared BNS Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with geometric Brown motion for Standard and Poor (SP) 500 stock data. Simulation result give BNS Gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model and Geometric Brownian motion a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are 0,13 and 0,24 respectively. These result indicate that the BNS Gamma  Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model gives a more accurate  than Geometric Brownian motion
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