摘要：Biodiversity in the Middle and Lower Yangtze Floodplain has critically decreased during the last several decades, driven by numerous determinants. Hence, identification of primary drivers of animal population decline is a priority for conservation. Analyzing long time-series data is a powerful way to assess drivers of declines, but the data are often missing, hampering effective conservation policymaking. In this study, based on twenty-four years (from 1996 to 2019) of annual maximal count data, we investigated the effects of climate and landscape changes on the increasing population trend of the Greater White-Fronted Goose (iAnser albifrons/i) at a Ramsar site in the Middle and Lower Yangtze Floodplain, China. Our results showed that the availability of a suitable habitat and landscape attributes are the key driving forces affecting the population trend, while the effects of climate factors are weak. Specifically, increasing the area of suitable habitat and alleviating habitat fragmentation through a fishing ban policy may have provided a more suitable habitat to the geese, contributing to the increasing population trend. However, we also observed that the grazing prohibition policy implemented in 2017 at Shengjin Lake may have potentially negatively affected geese abundance, as grazing by larger herbivores may favor smaller geese species by modifying the vegetation community and structure. Based on our results, we suggest several practical countermeasures to improve the habitat suitability for herbivorous goose species wintering in this region.
