摘要：In this work we present an application case of high school level probability concepts to solve an interesting real problem. In particular, we try to shed some light on uncertainties faced, at the beginning of the school year 2020-2021, by infant and primary schools and families with children in these educational stages in relation to possible temporary confinements of bubble groups that may occur as a result of positive COVID19 cases in them. These uncertainties lead centres and families to live in fear and anxiety the likelihood of suffering these confinements. In this paper, we present a simple probabilistic model using only high school level concepts and based on data about bubble group confinements during the first four weeks of the school year in nursery and primary schools in the Valencian Community (Spain), which allows us to make a prediction of the likelihood of centres and families to be confined for the remainder of the academic year. According to our model, the probability that centres will have to apply one or more bubble groups in the remainder of the course is quite high, while for families it is not too worrying, especially if they are not numerous. Also, we estimate the productivity impact related to working parents needs to look after their confined children which, as we show, is very low.
