摘要：COVID-19’s demand shocks have a significant impact on global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. However, few studies have estimated the impact of COVID-19’s direct and indirect demand shocks on sectoral CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and linkages. This study’s goal is to estimate the impact of COVID-19’s direct and indirect demand shocks on the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions of the Asia-Pacific countries of Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan (BCIIP). The study, based on the Asian Development Bank’s COVID-19 economic impact scenarios, estimated the impact of direct and indirect demand shocks on CO<sub>2</sub> releases using input–output and hypothetical extraction methods. In the no COVID-19 scenario, China emitted the most CO<sub>2</sub> (11 billion tons (Bt)), followed by India (2 Bt), Indonesia (0.5 Bt), Pakistan (0.2 Bt), and Bangladesh (0.08 Bt). For BCIIP nations, total demand shocks forced a 1–2% reduction in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions under a worst-case scenario. Given BCIIP’s current economic recovery, a best or moderate scenario with a negative impact of less than 1% is more likely in coming years. Direct demand shocks, with a negative 85–63% share, caused most of the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions decrease. The downstream indirect demand had only a 15–37% contribution to CO<sub>2</sub> emissions reduction. Our study also discusses policy implications.
