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  • 标题:Nonlinearities, Co-Trending and Budget Balance Sustainability
  • 作者:Mark J. Holmes
  • 期刊名称:Economic Analysis and Policy
  • 印刷版ISSN:0313-5926
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 卷号:40
  • 期号:3
  • 页码:369-376
  • DOI:10.1016/S0313-5926(10)50036-5
  • 出版社:Elsevier B.V.
  • 摘要:Abstract The study provides new evidence on the sustainability debate concerning the {US} budget balance. Existing studies are often only able to reject non-cointegration between government expenditure and revenue once structural breaks or regime changes are allowed for. Using a testing procedure advocated by Bierens, this study provides a different perspective on this issue. Government expenditure and revenue are both found to be stationary around a nonlinear deterministic trend, and they are co-trended insofar as they share a common nonlinear deterministic trend.
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