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  • 标题:Sustainable Determinants That Affect Tourist Arrival Forecasting
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Sergej Gricar ; Tea Baldigara ; Violeta Šugar
  • 期刊名称:Sustainability
  • 印刷版ISSN:2071-1050
  • 出版年度:2021
  • 卷号:13
  • 期号:17
  • 页码:9659
  • DOI:10.3390/su13179659
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:MDPI, Open Access Journal
  • 摘要:This study considers diversification effects and significant influences on tourist arrivals as a vital export direction. Different quantitative methods, namely a cointegrated-autoregressive model, panels, sentiment and sensitivity analysis, were used in this study. The time-series data for Croatia and Slovenia were isolated from several secondary sources. The variables examined in this approach are tourist arrivals, precipitations, sunny days, earthquakes, microbes and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. The study results showed that there is a severe negative effect on tourist arrivals defined by viruses. Moreover, there is a significant decisive effect of weather conditions on tourist arrivals. Nevertheless, it is necessary to move past Covid-19 pandemic discussions to yield more accurate tourism supply forecasts, while demand is already somehow low since the beginning of 2020. The primary significance is to develop a broader thinking about the impacts of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions on the tourism escorted to official tourist websites.
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